Is the U.S. Housing Market at a Crossroads?
Homes reached record prices in early 2022 – so is the current market a housing recession or just a market correction?
Here are some extracts from an article Market at the Crossroads on the Florida Realtors website, with my comments and links to recent articles at the end.
Is there a housing slowdown?
There is widespread consensus that the housing market has experienced a drastic drop-off in activity since its pandemic-prompted heights.
The housing market is “not like the volatile stock market, always going up and down; the housing market moves at a different, slower pace. “The market simply could not, and was never expected to, grow at that pace indefinitely,” Neda Navab, president of brokerage operations at real estate company Compass said. “Whether this trend will continue long enough for the market to enter a true ‘recession,’ or if this is simply the start of an expected ‘correction’ to historic norms, still remains to be seen.”
The case for a housing correction (more…)
Pelican Bay Villa Open House TODAY 2-4
Join me today 2-4 to see one of only 2 villas currently for sale in Pelican Bay with a private pool.
Lush landscaped views await you from this 3 bed/2.5 bath villa in Lugano at Pelican Bay. Located in the heart of Pelican Bay, this Northwest-facing property boasts 2,100 square feet of living area, plus a walled garden and lanai with private pool and spa. There is only one Pelican Bay! The premier luxury community in northern Naples, Pelican Bay offers residents exclusive access to unrivaled amenities that include three Gulf-front restaurants, two tennis facilities, a 27-hole golf course, two boardwalks, a Fitness and Wellness Center, and three miles of private beaches. With venues easily accessible by the community’s comprehensive tram system, residents can just take a backseat and enjoy the ride. Pelican Bay is adjacent to Waterside Shops and within walking distance of Artis–Naples, Southwest Florida’s top tier performing arts center, which is currently planning a $150 million renovation. You’ll never be far from fine dining, luxury shopping, and world class entertainment.
Click Customer_Financial_Report for details and Features for highlights. And Pelican Bay for full information about Pelican Bay.
And read these recent articles: (more…)
Pelican Bay Villa Open House TODAY 12-4
Join me today 12-4 to see the only villa currently for sale in Pelican Bay with a private pool.
Lush landscaped views await you from this 3 bed/2.5 bath villa in Lugano at Pelican Bay. Located in the heart of Pelican Bay, this Northwest-facing property boasts 2,100 square feet of living area, plus a walled garden and lanai with private pool and spa. There is only one Pelican Bay! The premier luxury community in northern Naples, Pelican Bay offers residents exclusive access to unrivaled amenities that include three Gulf-front restaurants, two tennis facilities, a 27-hole golf course, two boardwalks, a Fitness and Wellness Center, and three miles of private beaches. With venues easily accessible by the community’s comprehensive tram system, residents can just take a backseat and enjoy the ride. Pelican Bay is adjacent to Waterside Shops and within walking distance of Artis–Naples, Southwest Florida’s top tier performing arts center, which is currently planning a $150 million renovation. You’ll never be far from fine dining, luxury shopping, and world class entertainment.
Click Customer_Financial_Report for details and Features for highlights. And Pelican Bay for full information about Pelican Bay.
And read these recent articles: (more…)
Florida July Market Update in 4 minutes
This short video is an excellent summary of what is happening to the market overall in Florida.
And this is my recent overview of the market in Naples: Market returning to normal – well, mostly
And read these recent articles: (more…)
Market returning to normal – well, mostly
After the extremely strong market post COVID it is instructive to take a slightly longer-term look.
These 3 charts are very much big picture for the entire Naples region and include all types of property. They do show, however, that sales and new listings have reverted to the norm, while prices overall are some 65% higher. (more…)
Recession: what Recession?
The August jobs report published yesterday showed that the labour market remained red-hot in July despite expectations job growth would cool as tighter monetary conditions and company layoffs stoked fears of a recession.
Here were the key numbers from the report, compared to economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg:
Non-farm payrolls: +528,000 vs. +250,000 (more…)
No, the Federal Reserve does not control mortgage rates
There is widespread misunderstanding about what drives mortgage rates. Indeed, I read an article recenlty on the National Association of Realtors website which stated that mortgage rates had risen sharply following the increase in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate.
Not so. (more…)
Recession? Yes, no, maybe……..
When I proposed to my wife, she was taken by surprise and responded: “Yes, no, maybe.”
I was reminded of that response while listening to all the conversations in recent days about whether or not the US already in, is about to be in, or will escape a recession.
A lot of the confusion relates to the question: “how do you define recession?” and “who gets to decide if it is a recession?”
And no, it’s not by Punxsutawney Phil looking for his shadow.
What is a recession? (more…)
Federal Reserve tries to rewrite history
Two comments from Federal Reserve Chair Powell struck me while I was listening to his Press Conference on Wednesday:
On the “speed” of the Fed’s move to increase rates:
“When inflation changed direction, really, in October. We’ve moved quickly since then. I think people would agree. But before then, inflation was coming down month by month. And we kind of thought we had the story. Probably had the story right. But then I think in October, you started to see a range of data that said no. This is a much stronger economy and much higher inflation than we’ve been thinking.”
Moved quickly? (more…)
Sales Resemble Pre-Pandemic — But Not Pricing & Inventory
The number of closed sales is starting to resemble pre-pandemic levels — but this is a very different market now because homes are listed at significantly higher prices and inventory levels remain much lower than before.
Click June Florida Housing Report to watch a short video from Brad O’Connor, Ph.D., the Chief Economist for Florida Realtors®
And read these recent articles: (more…)
Naples mid-year Market Report
The trends evident in 2021 – persistent demand meeting lower inventory leading to fewer sales at higher prices – continued into the early months of 2022, but there was a notable cooling of the market towards the end of the second quarter, as rising mortgage rates and fears of recession, along with a sharp drop in the stock market, contributed to a hesitation amongst buyers. As always, caution should be exercised when looking at small numbers of transactions.
And read these recent articles: (more…)
Moody’s: Housing Correction Coming – but No Crash
NEW YORK – Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi predicts that the latest Federal Reserve interest rate hike will cause a housing correction across the United States – but there won’t be a housing crash.
He suggests that the Southeast and Mountain West are the most overvalued housing markets, and the pendulum will swing back down. Cities and states due for a correction include Phoenix and Tucson in Arizona, the Carolinas, northeast Florida, and above all, Boise – “the most overvalued market in the country,” according to Moody’s analysis. (more…)
Millennials now make up 43% of Homebuyers
The share of millennial homebuyers increased significantly over the past year, according to the 2022 Home Buyer and Seller Generational Trends report from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).
The combined share of younger millennial (23 to 31 years old) and older millennial buyers (32 to 41 years old) rose to 43% in 2021, up from 37% the year prior. Almost two out of three younger millennials (65%) found the home they ultimately purchased on the internet, a number that gradually decreases with older generations. (more…)
Most expensive home in Naples history sells for $62 million
The most expensive home in Collier County history sold Thursday for $62 million, shattering the old record by $10 million.
Built in 2014, the 16,000-square-foot estate features six bedrooms, a glass wine room, a gourmet kitchen, a game room and a second-level pool and came furnished in the transaction.
