Recession: what Recession?

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The August jobs report published yesterday showed that the labour market remained red-hot in July despite expectations job growth would cool as tighter monetary conditions and company layoffs stoked fears of a recession.

Here were the key numbers from the report, compared to economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

Non-farm payrolls: +528,000 vs. +250,000

Unemployment rate: 3.5% vs. 3.6%

Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: +0.5% vs. +0.4%

Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: +5.2% vs. +4.9%

Last week I published Recession? Yes, no, maybe…. . The US has seen two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months,” is the usual criterion for declaring arecession.

And the latest employment numbers clearly do not meet that definition.

The problem
While the White House and Wall Street may cheer the strong economic numbers, they only make the Federal Reserve’s job more difficult as it belatedly tries to slow the economy. Thus after the announcement on Friday, the odds increased that we will get further large rate increases from the Fed in September and later.

And read these recent articles:

Economic commentary
No, the Federal Reserve does not control mortgage rates
Federal Reserve tries to rewrite history
Has Inflation Peaked?
Have Mortgage Rates peaked?
 Are we already in a Recession?
 Federal Reserve in Fantasyland: Implications for Housing Market
How far Behind the Curve is the Federal Reserve?
 Will the Federal Reserve show chutzpah today?
 Why are Mortgage Rates so high?

Other
How to protect your house from title fraud
Florida Lawmakers Pass Insurance, Condo Reforms
Florida Regulator: Insurers Can Offer Roof Deductibles
Expansion Plans for Fort Myers Airport
Guide to Buying and Selling in Southwest Florida

May Market Summaries
Sales Resemble Pre-Pandemic — But Not Pricing & Inventory
Naples May Market Summary
Bonita Springs May Market Summary
Sanibel May Market Summary
Fort Myers Beach May Market Summary
Estero May Market Summary
St James City May Market Summary
Estero May Market Summary

  • Andrew Oliver, M.B.E., M.B.A.
    Real Estate Advisor
    Andrew.Oliver@Compass.com
    www.TheFeinsGroup.com
    www.OliverReportsFL.com
    m: 617.834.8205
    ———-
    800 Laurel Oak Drive, Suite 400, Naples, FL 34108
    ———-
    Licensed in Massachusetts
    www.OliverReportsMA.com

If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@Compass.com.