Hello sub 3% Mortgages – again

This week’s drop below 3% – again – reminded me that the only one thing more fraught than commenting on mortgage rates is trying to predict where rates are headed. (see below for some of my posts about mortgage rates.)
After rising steadily from 2.65% at the beginning of the year to 3.18% by the end of March, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) has backed off again and this week the rate dropped back under 3%.

Mortgage rates
Freddie Mac weekly survey

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Goodbye sub 3% mortgages

It was only last July that the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) dropped below 3% for the first time and this week it moved back above 3% again, following the direction of the 10-year Treasury Note (10T).

Mortgage rates (more…)

Where have all the sellers gone?

As I read this New York Times article: Where have all the houses gone? my mind went to Yogi Berra’s line of “it’s deja vu all over again” as I checked my files and discovered that this will be my 5th article with this title – and the first was written in 2013.

Let’s look at the what and the why.

First, the what. This chart shows that inventory has plummeted across the country:

Housing Inventory

The why (more…)

Are mortgage rates about to rise?

Following the Georgia Senate election results, which gave control of the Senate to the Democrats, along with the House of Representatives and the White House, the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note (10T) – the most sensitive to increased Government spending – jumped from 0.93% on Monday to 1.13% on Friday, based upon the expectation that increased Government spending would lead to more borrowing which would need higher interest rates to attract investors.

Why does this matter for mortgage rates?  Because the rate on the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) is based upon an extra yield – spread – that investors require over that available on 10T. The national average reported on Thursday ( based on rates from Monday-Wednesday) was a record low of 2.65%, but next week will almost certainly see an increase. (more…)