INFLATION and RECESSION UPDATE

This time last year, stocks were still in the gutter, inflation was in the stratosphere and Fed interest rates were going up, up, up. Today the S&P 500 has risen 17% since Jan. 1, the much-anticipated recession has yet to arrive, unemployment remains below 4% and consumers are still spending–Walmart, Target, and Gap all beat expectations this week.
Inflation has dropped to around 3%, not too far off the Fed’s 2% target. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon was talking about deflation in the coming months. Oil prices are below $75 a barrel, Airfares are significantly cheaper this year than they were for the holidays last year. Bond yields are dropping, too, as traders start to price in Fed rate cuts next year. The 10-year yield has dropped back to around 4.4% from as high as 5% in October. (Barrons)

On Thursday, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said deflation could be coming as general merchandise and key grocery items, such as eggs, chicken and seafood get cheaper.
He said the retailer expects some of the stickier higher prices, such as the ones for pantry staples, to “start to deflate in the coming weeks and months,” too.
“In the U.S., we may be managing through a period of deflation in the months to come,” he said on the company’s Thursday earnings call. “And while that would put more unit pressure on us, we welcome it, because it’s better for our customers.”

“I think the most important observation we’ve made is that the worst of the inflationary environment is behind us,” Hone Depot, Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail

The question now is whether the Federal Reserve, having been extremely slow to start raising rates and reversing Quantative Easing, will be similarly late in easing. The Fed claims to be data dependent, but data tells us what happened in the past – and the Fed’s actions impact the future.

“The Fed must lower rates to cause money suply to grow by 5% per year, consistent with the 2% inflation target.If the Fed waits until core inflation is 2% we could have a recession.”(Jeremy Siegel, Wharton)

And read these articles:
Why Mortgage Rates will fall in 2024
Transitory inflation? Recession? What else will forecasters get wrong?
More insurers coming to Florida
Core Inflation Prices Barely Budged in August
August Housing Market: Median Prices Rise Year on Year

Market Reports
BAY FOREST Q3 MARKET REPORT 2019-2023
BONITA BAY Q3 MARKET REPORT 2019-2023
IMPERIAL GOLF ESTATES Q3 MARKET REPORT 2019-2023 (more…)

IMPERIAL GOLF ESTATES Q3 MARKET REPORT 2019-2023

The median price of the Single Family homes sold in Imperial Golf Estates (“Imperial”) doubled from $515,000 in 2019 to over $1 million in 2022. YTD Q3 2023 the median price increased further to $1.2 million.
Sales increased until Q2 2021, thereafter dropping below pre-pandemic levels.

The median price of the Villas increased nearly 50% from $315,000 in 2019 to $465,000 in 2022. The YTD Q3 2023 median price was $539,500, in line with Q4 2022. The number of sales was low, but fairly steady over the years.

The median price of the Condos sold increased by over 70% from $222,000 in 2019 to $386,000 in 2022, before slipping slightly in 2023. Sales increased in 2020/21 before returning to 2019 levels.

This report analyses the Median Price and Sales per quarter since 2019, along with the Sales by Price point, Price per Sq.Ft., and the Days properties were on the market before receiving an offer (DTO).
Median numbers are used in all calculations.

Click on IMPERIAL GOLF ESTATES MARKET REPORT 2019_2023 to read the full report.

And read these articles:
More insurers coming to Florida
Core Inflation Prices Barely Budged in August
August Housing Market: Median Prices Rise Year on Year (more…)

Core Inflation Prices Barely Budged in August

While inflation rose 3.5% year-to-year in Aug. – still above the Fed’s 2% goal – it was only up 0.1% month-to-month after backing out higher gas prices.

Core inflation slows
But excluding the volatile food and gas categories, “core” inflation rose by the smallest amount in almost two years in August, evidence that it’s continuing to cool. Fed officials pay particular attention to core prices, which are considered a better gauge of where inflation might be headed.

Core prices rose just 0.1% from July to August, down from July’s 0.2%. It was the smallest monthly increase since November 2021.

Compared with a year ago, (more…)

August Housing Market: Median Prices Rise Year on Year

Florida’s statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes in August was $415,000, up 2% from the same month a year ago, while the statewide median price for condo-townhouse units was $324,000, up 6.2% over the August 2022 figure. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

“Prospective buyers continue to be drawn to Florida’s lifestyle, climate and job opportunities. Persistently higher mortgage rates and a restricted for-sale inventory are hampering sales activity. However, as our housing prices continue to stabilize and interest rates hopefully moderate, we expect conditions to return to a more balanced market with more options for buyers and sellers.”

On the supply side of the market, single-family existing homes ticked up slightly to reach a 3-months’ supply in August while condo-townhouse properties rose to a 3.8-months’ supply. (more…)