Why Mortgage Rates will fall in 2024
This article addresses two things: what drives mortgage rates, and why they will fall.
What drives mortgage rates?
The Federal Reserve (Fed) meets regularly and announces, with great fanfare, its “Federal Funds Rate(FFR).” But what is this interest rate and what does it influence?
The FFR is the rate at which commercial banks borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other overnight. It is this rate which impacts the interest rate on many consumer loans, such as credit cards and automobile loans, but NOT 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgages (FRM).
In general, FRM are sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and are bundled into portfolios which are sold to investors as Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). The yield investors demand for MBS is based upon the yield on the US Treasury 10-year (10T) yield, and the extra yield investors want to buy MBS rather than just risk-free Treasuries.
Look at this chart showing the three rates (FRM, FFR and 10T) over the last year. Note that the Green (FRM) and Red (10T) lines move in tandem, while the blue line (FFR) does not move with either of the other two. Thus, the FRM is determined by the yield on 10T, which is set by the market, and not by the Federal Reserve.
Transitory inflation? Recession? What else will forecasters get wrong?
Economists spent 2021 expecting inflation to prove “transitory.” They spent much of 2022 underestimating its staying power. And they spent early 2023 predicting that the Fed’s rate increases, meant to cure the inflation, would plunge the economy into a recession. (NY TIMES)
“US Economy Grew at a 4.9% Pace Last Quarter, Fastest Since 2021” (Bloomberg)
“The forecasts have been embarrassingly wrong, in the entire forecasting community. We are still trying to figure
out how this new economy works.” (Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management)
“The economy is slowing faster than recent data suggests.” (Bill Ackman, Pershing Capital)
“I want to point out the central banks 18 months ago were 100% dead wrong. I would be quite cautious about what might happen next year.” (JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon)
And read these articles:
More insurers coming to Florida
Core Inflation Prices Barely Budged in August
August Housing Market: Median Prices Rise Year on Year
Market Reports
BAY FOREST Q3 MARKET REPORT 2019-2023
BONITA BAY Q3 MARKET REPORT 2019-2023
IMPERIAL GOLF ESTATES Q3 MARKET REPORT 2019-2023 (more…)
BONITA BAY Q3 MARKET REPORT 2019-2023
The median price of the Single Family homes sold in Bonita Bay doubled from just under $1.2 million in 2019 to $2.5 million in 2022. YTD Q3 2023 the median price declined slightly from $2.7 million to $2.5 million, but the number of sales was small in both years.
Sales increased until around Q3 2021, thereafter returning to pre-pandemic levels and below.
The median price of the Villas sold in Bonita Bay increased more than 50% from $554,100 in 2019 to $862,500 in 2022. YTD Q3 2023, the median price has increased a further 15% to almost $1 million.
The number of sales has fluctuated in recent years, but the overall number is quite small.
The median price of the Condos sold in Bonita Bay increased 70% from just under $500,000 in 2019 to $831,000 in 2022. On the surface, the median price jumped to $1.1 million YTD Q3 2023, but the 31 sales at Omega boosted the median price. Without those sales, the YTD Q3 median price would be $794,000, a drop of some 6% from the YTD Q3 2022 level, when there were no sales at Omega.
This report analyses the Median Price and Sales per quarter since 2019, along with the Sales by Price point, Price per Sq.Ft., and the Days properties were on the market before receiving an offer (DTO).
Median numbers are used in all calculations.
Click on BONITA BAY MARKET REPORT 2019_2023 to read the full report.
And read these articles:
More insurers coming to Florida
Core Inflation Prices Barely Budged in August
August Housing Market: Median Prices Rise Year on Year (more…)
IMPERIAL GOLF ESTATES Q3 MARKET REPORT 2019-2023
The median price of the Single Family homes sold in Imperial Golf Estates (“Imperial”) doubled from $515,000 in 2019 to over $1 million in 2022. YTD Q3 2023 the median price increased further to $1.2 million.
Sales increased until Q2 2021, thereafter dropping below pre-pandemic levels.
The median price of the Villas increased nearly 50% from $315,000 in 2019 to $465,000 in 2022. The YTD Q3 2023 median price was $539,500, in line with Q4 2022. The number of sales was low, but fairly steady over the years.
The median price of the Condos sold increased by over 70% from $222,000 in 2019 to $386,000 in 2022, before slipping slightly in 2023. Sales increased in 2020/21 before returning to 2019 levels.
This report analyses the Median Price and Sales per quarter since 2019, along with the Sales by Price point, Price per Sq.Ft., and the Days properties were on the market before receiving an offer (DTO).
Median numbers are used in all calculations.
Click on IMPERIAL GOLF ESTATES MARKET REPORT 2019_2023 to read the full report.
And read these articles:
More insurers coming to Florida
Core Inflation Prices Barely Budged in August
August Housing Market: Median Prices Rise Year on Year (more…)
BAY FOREST Q3 MARKET REPORT 2019-2023
The median price of the homes sold in Bay Forest jumped nearly 70% from $268,000 in 2019 to just over $450,000 in 2022. Sales surged until around Q3 2021, thereafter returning closer to pre-pandemic levels. YTD Q3 2023 – a better gauge than quarterly fluctuations on a very small number of sales – the median price increased 14% to $500,000. Quarterly fluctuations will occur when the numbers are small and the price range wide – in Bay Forest from $320,000 to $799,000 in 2023.
This report analyses the Median Price and Sales per quarter since 2019, along with the Sales by Price point, Price per Sq.Ft., and the Days properties were on the market before receiving an offer (DTO).
Median numbers are used in all calculations.
Click on BAY FOREST MARKET REPORT 2019-2023 to read the full report.
And read these articles:
More insurers coming to Florida
Core Inflation Prices Barely Budged in August
August Housing Market: Median Prices Rise Year on Year (more…)
Two More Ways the Mortgage Market differs from 2007/2008
The chart below shows how loans with a credit score under 660 – the bottom colours of yellow and dark blue – which were about 20% of the total in the 2004-2007 period, have virtually ceased, with loans over 720 now making up the vast majority of new mortgages.
Two other changes:
Adjustable-rate mortgages can lead to higher default rates when interest rates rise, but they now represent less than 5% of total purchase and refinance loans, compared with over 35% at the peak of the pre-GFC (Global Financial Crisis) housing cycle. (FORTUNE)
The ratio of Americans’ mortgage debt to their real estate assets—also called loan-to-value—was just 27% in the second quarter, compared to over 40% in 2008 and roughly 50% in 2010. (Bank of America)
And read these articles:
More insurers coming to Florida
Core Inflation Prices Barely Budged in August
August Housing Market: Median Prices Rise Year on Year (more…)
More insurers coming to Florida
More insurance companies have come to do business in Florida, according to State Representative Bob Rommel.
Rommel said that the four carriers coming will not officially sell you a policy until hurricane season is over. There are three more insurers that are in the process of coming into the state as well.
“Before we got the bill, there was a fear that there will be little or no reinsurance money available for insurance carriers, which they need. Since we passed the bill, everybody has been able to get reinsurance, so I think that there is a light at the end of the tunnel,” said Rommel.
According to Rommel, he’ll continue addressing the state’s insurance crisis when legislators meet again in 2024 (WINKNews) (more…)
Core Inflation Prices Barely Budged in August
While inflation rose 3.5% year-to-year in Aug. – still above the Fed’s 2% goal – it was only up 0.1% month-to-month after backing out higher gas prices.
Core inflation slows
But excluding the volatile food and gas categories, “core” inflation rose by the smallest amount in almost two years in August, evidence that it’s continuing to cool. Fed officials pay particular attention to core prices, which are considered a better gauge of where inflation might be headed.
Core prices rose just 0.1% from July to August, down from July’s 0.2%. It was the smallest monthly increase since November 2021.
Compared with a year ago, (more…)
August Housing Market: Median Prices Rise Year on Year
Florida’s statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes in August was $415,000, up 2% from the same month a year ago, while the statewide median price for condo-townhouse units was $324,000, up 6.2% over the August 2022 figure. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.
“Prospective buyers continue to be drawn to Florida’s lifestyle, climate and job opportunities. Persistently higher mortgage rates and a restricted for-sale inventory are hampering sales activity. However, as our housing prices continue to stabilize and interest rates hopefully moderate, we expect conditions to return to a more balanced market with more options for buyers and sellers.”
On the supply side of the market, single-family existing homes ticked up slightly to reach a 3-months’ supply in August while condo-townhouse properties rose to a 3.8-months’ supply. (more…)
Credit Score Change Could Help Millions of Buyers
The nation’s consumer bureau took a first step to erase medical debt from credit reports and lending decisions because that type of debt “has little predictive value.”
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) outlined proposals under consideration – moves that it says would help families recover from medical crises, stop debt collectors from coercing people into paying bills they may not owe, and ensure that creditors don’t rely on data that is often plagued with inaccuracies and mistakes.
“Research shows that medical bills have little predictive value in credit decisions, yet tens of millions of American households are dealing with medical debt on their credit reports,” says CFPB Director Rohit Chopra. “When someone gets sick, they should be able to focus on getting better rather than fighting debt collectors trying to extort them into paying bills they may not even owe.”
“Access to health care should be a right and not a privilege,” Vice President Kamala Harris told reporters as she helped CFPB make the announcement. “These measures will improve the credit scores of millions of Americans so that they will better be able to invest in their future.” (more…)
TODAY marks the peak of Hurricane Season
While, sadly, Hurricanes can occur at any time during the season, today marks the statistical peak of hurricane season.
Let’s hope there will be no more major storms in 2023.
And read these articles:
Home Prices Are Rebounding
Insurance Reform : Premiums still rising sharply
Naples Mid-year 2023 Market Stats
(more…)
Insurance Issues Could Pose Long-Term Problems
As Florida recovers from Hurricane Idalia, Fitch Ratings this week warned about long-term effects of property-insurance problems in Florida and California.
“Rising premiums and reduced availability of homeowners’ property insurance could drag on housing markets, development activity, overall economic growth and ultimately tax bases for certain California and Florida local governments over time,” the ratings agency said in a post Tuesday on its website.
“Insurers are re-evaluating their exposures to geographic areas with elevated catastrophe risk as they face greater losses and higher building and reinsurance costs. Insurance plays a key role in securing mortgages and enabling rebuilding following natural disasters.” Fitch said.
Florida has the highest homeowners’ insurance premiums in the country and Fitch pointed to pullbacks of firms such as Farmers Insurance in Florida and California.
It also cited massive growth at Florida’s Citizens Property Insurance Corp. which was created as an insurer of last resort but now has nearly 1.4 million policies.
“Recovery following natural disasters may be delayed or incomplete if there are greater numbers of those who are under-insured or uninsured due to affordability or non-renewal issues,” Fitch said. “High-risk areas could be left with a smaller tax base if hurricane or wildfire damage leads to permanent relocations, or if these areas find it difficult to attract new residents.
“Fitch has not observed these effects playing out to date, as insurance is one of many factors in home purchase decisions. However, pressures on housing demand could be amplified with increasing natural disasters and insurance markets in which the insurers of last resort are costly or impose higher assessments to cover increased claims.”
Florida lawmakers in December passed a series of changes to try to shore up the insurance market, including taking steps to limit lawsuits against property insurers.
© 2023 The News Service of Florida. All rights reserved.
And read these articles:
Home Prices Are Rebounding
Insurance Reform : Premiums still rising sharply
Naples Mid-year 2023 Market Stats
(more…)
2 of Every 25 U.S. Homes Worth at Least $1M
While $1M signified luxury property a short while ago, it’s now 8% of the nation’s housing stock – but a large percentage of those homes are still in Pacific Coast states..
The share of homes worth seven figures is on an upswing after dipping to a 12-month low (7.3%) in February because prices are rising on a year-over-year basis after a decline early in the year.
Overall, the median U.S. home-sale price rose 3% in July, the biggest increase since last November, according to Redfin, with luxury home prices rising even faster – up 4.6% year over year to $1.2 million in the second quarter.
Elevated mortgage rates discourage potential home sellers, who are staying put to keep their relatively low mortgage rates. As a result, inventory dropped so low that buyers still in the market are competing for those few homes that are for sale. That’s driving up home prices and pushing many of those listings above the million-dollar mark.
“The supply shortage is making many listings feel hot,” said Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao. “In most of the country, expensive properties that are in good condition and priced fairly are attracting buyers and in some cases bidding wars, mostly because for-sale signs are few and far between right now.”
The share of homes worth seven figures has doubled since before the pandemic. In June 2019, just over 4% of homes were valued at $1 million or more. (more…)
13243 WEDGEFIELD DRIVE Open House Today 11:30-2
SPARKLING GOLF COURSE AND LAKE VIEWS FROM THIS 2 BED + DEN (with closet so could be 3 BED), 2 BATH VILLA in SOUGHT AFTER WEDGEFIELD VILLAS in IMPERIAL GOLF ESTATES
Listed at $560,000
Go HERE to view photos and video, or call Andrew Oliver on 617.834.8205 to arrange a private viewing.
And read these articles:
Florida News
Insurance Reform : Premiums still rising sharply
Naples Mid-year 2023 Market Stats
(more…)
Home Prices Are Rebounding
You may feel a bit unsure about what’s happening with home prices and fear whether or not the worst is yet to come. That’s because today’s headlines are painting an unnecessarily negative picture. If we take a year-over-year view, home prices did drop some, but that’s because we’re comparing to a ‘unicorn’ year when prices peaked well beyond the norm.
To avoid an unfair comparison to that previous peak, we need to look at monthly data. And that tells a very different and much more positive story. While local home price trends still vary by market, here’s what the national data tells us.
The graphs below use recent monthly reports from three sources to show the worst home price declines are already behind us, and prices are appreciating nationally.
Looking at this monthly view, we can see the past year in the housing market can be divided into two parts. In the first half of 2022, home prices were going up, and fast. However, starting in July, prices began to go down (shown in red in the graphs above). By around August or September, the trend started to stabilize. But, looking at the most recent data for early 2023, these graphs also show that prices are going up again.
The fact that all three reports show prices have been going up for three or more straight months is an encouraging sign for the housing market. The month-over-month data indicates a national shift is happening – home prices are rising again.
Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, says this about home price trends: (more…)