Core Inflation Prices Barely Budged in August

While inflation rose 3.5% year-to-year in Aug. – still above the Fed’s 2% goal – it was only up 0.1% month-to-month after backing out higher gas prices.

Core inflation slows
But excluding the volatile food and gas categories, “core” inflation rose by the smallest amount in almost two years in August, evidence that it’s continuing to cool. Fed officials pay particular attention to core prices, which are considered a better gauge of where inflation might be headed.

Core prices rose just 0.1% from July to August, down from July’s 0.2%. It was the smallest monthly increase since November 2021.

Compared with a year ago, (more…)

August Housing Market: Median Prices Rise Year on Year

Florida’s statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes in August was $415,000, up 2% from the same month a year ago, while the statewide median price for condo-townhouse units was $324,000, up 6.2% over the August 2022 figure. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

“Prospective buyers continue to be drawn to Florida’s lifestyle, climate and job opportunities. Persistently higher mortgage rates and a restricted for-sale inventory are hampering sales activity. However, as our housing prices continue to stabilize and interest rates hopefully moderate, we expect conditions to return to a more balanced market with more options for buyers and sellers.”

On the supply side of the market, single-family existing homes ticked up slightly to reach a 3-months’ supply in August while condo-townhouse properties rose to a 3.8-months’ supply. (more…)

Insurance Issues Could Pose Long-Term Problems

As Florida recovers from Hurricane Idalia, Fitch Ratings this week warned about long-term effects of property-insurance problems in Florida and California.

“Rising premiums and reduced availability of homeowners’ property insurance could drag on housing markets, development activity, overall economic growth and ultimately tax bases for certain California and Florida local governments over time,” the ratings agency said in a post Tuesday on its website.

“Insurers are re-evaluating their exposures to geographic areas with elevated catastrophe risk as they face greater losses and higher building and reinsurance costs. Insurance plays a key role in securing mortgages and enabling rebuilding following natural disasters.” Fitch said.

Florida has the highest homeowners’ insurance premiums in the country and Fitch pointed to pullbacks of firms such as Farmers Insurance in Florida and California.

It also cited massive growth at Florida’s Citizens Property Insurance Corp. which was created as an insurer of last resort but now has nearly 1.4 million policies.

“Recovery following natural disasters may be delayed or incomplete if there are greater numbers of those who are under-insured or uninsured due to affordability or non-renewal issues,” Fitch said. “High-risk areas could be left with a smaller tax base if hurricane or wildfire damage leads to permanent relocations, or if these areas find it difficult to attract new residents.

“Fitch has not observed these effects playing out to date, as insurance is one of many factors in home purchase decisions. However, pressures on housing demand could be amplified with increasing natural disasters and insurance markets in which the insurers of last resort are costly or impose higher assessments to cover increased claims.”

Florida lawmakers in December passed a series of changes to try to shore up the insurance market, including taking steps to limit lawsuits against property insurers.

© 2023 The News Service of Florida. All rights reserved.

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(more…)

Home Prices Are Rebounding

You may feel a bit unsure about what’s happening with home prices and fear whether or not the worst is yet to come. That’s because today’s headlines are painting an unnecessarily negative picture. If we take a year-over-year view, home prices did drop some, but that’s because we’re comparing to a ‘unicorn’ year when prices peaked well beyond the norm.

To avoid an unfair comparison to that previous peak, we need to look at monthly data. And that tells a very different and much more positive story. While local home price trends still vary by market, here’s what the national data tells us.

The graphs below use recent monthly reports from three sources to show the worst home price declines are already behind us, and prices are appreciating nationally.

Looking at this monthly view, we can see the past year in the housing market can be divided into two parts. In the first half of 2022, home prices were going up, and fast. However, starting in July, prices began to go down (shown in red in the graphs above). By around August or September, the trend started to stabilize. But, looking at the most recent data for early 2023, these graphs also show that prices are going up again.

The fact that all three reports show prices have been going up for three or more straight months is an encouraging sign for the housing market. The month-over-month data indicates a national shift is happening – home prices are rising again.

Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, says this about home price trends: (more…)