Major Homebuilder Sees Surprising Signs of Life in Troubled Florida Housing Market
A major homebuilder has reported recent gains in Florida, marking a surprising turnaround in the state after several years of slowing sales and falling prices.
PulteGroup, the third-largest homebuilder in the nation, said that net new orders in Florida rose 2% last quarter compared with a year earlier.
“We’re really happy with what we saw out of Florida,” PulteGroup President and CEO Ryan Marshall told investors on a call last month. “We get buyers from all over the country, all over the world that come into Florida. We also see a healthy mix of folks moving within Florida as well.” PulteGroup’s unexpected uptick in Florida sales follows years of pronounced weakness in the state, where homebuilders have been forced to slash prices and offer mortgage rate buydowns and other generous concessions in the face of weak demand.
In recent months, however, there are signs that Florida’s housing market is getting closer to equilibrium, with inventory stabilizing and price declines slowing. (more…)
Storm Losses and Attorney and Public Adjuster Fees in Florida
“While hurricanes have become more frequent and severe in recent years, the threat of damage from catastrophic weather events is not the only factor driving a decrease in capacity and increased insurance costs in the state. Increased legislation has increased the cost of claims. The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation reports that Florida accounts for only 9% of the nation’s homeowners’ claims but 79% of homeowners insurance lawsuits. The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation states that over a 10-year period, 71% of the $51 billion paid by Florida insurers went to attorneys’ fees and public adjusters. In total, these parties have received more claims settlement money than policyholders. In 2023, the industry posted collective underwriting losses of $190.8 million, marking the eighth straight year of losses, according to S&P Global. As a result, insurance in Florida continues to be scarcer and more expensive. (more…)
How’s the Market in Bonita Springs in 2025?
This is, naturally, the most asked question by both buyers and sellers.
While there are always anecdotal stories – about both high- and low-priced sales – I try in this blog to focus on facts, actual sales data, albeit recognising that sales take place 4-8 weeks after a contract is signed. So sales are a lagging indicator; but they are neither selective nor influenced by emotion.
While I normally focus on quarterly numbers in less seasonal markets, here in Southwest Florida the market fluctuates so much with the calendar – more higher-priced take place during “the season” – that I report monthly figures for the overall area.
Here are the charts showing median prices since 2022 for all areas of Bonita Springs, broken down by property type. In broad terms the median price peaks each year in the early months, drifts lower in the summer months and recovers in the Fall. The Condo market is showing signs of weakness beyond the seasonal.
Single family sales
SFH sales have been generally in the $700,00-800,000 range:
Villa Sales (more…)
How’s the Condo Market in Pelican Bay in 2025?
As a follow up to my post How’s the Market in Naples in 2025? I have produced a simlar report for Pelican Bay Condos. As Condo sales account for 80% or more of all sales in Pelican Bay, I have not produced the charts for Single Family and Villa sales. Because of the much smaller number of those sales, they are more appropriately monitored on a quarterly basis and are included in my quarterly reports. Because there were only 3 very high-prices sales in November 2024 I have excluded that month from the chart. In general, the median price in recent years has been in the $1.1-1.5 million range, with the usual seasonal variations: Higher early in the year when more buyers of higher-priced properties are here, dropping in the summer and picking up again in the Fall.
Read Politics, Financial Markets and The Magnificent Seven
How’s the Market in Naples in 2025?
This is, naturally, the most asked question by both buyers and sellers.
While there are always anecdotal stories – about both high- and low-priced sales – I try in this blog to focus on facts, actual sales data, albeit recognising that sales take place 4-8 weeks after a contract is signed. So sales are a lagging indicator; but they are neither selective nor influenced by emotion.
While I normally focus on quarterly numbers in less seasonal markets, here in Naples the market fluctuates so much with the calendar – more higher-priced take place during “the season” – that I report monthly figures.
Here are the charts showing median prices since 2022 for all areas of Naples, broken down by property type. In broad terms the median price peaks each year in the early months, drifts lower in the summer months and recovers in the Fall. (more…)
Politics, Financial Markets, and The Magnificent Seven
At the end of The Magnificent Seven (1960) Yul Brynner says: “…only the farmers won. We lost. We always lose.” (The “we” refers to the gunslingers hired to protect a Mexican village from bandits.)
I am reminded of this quote whenever politicians try to take on financial markets – the markets are the farmers, and the politicians are the gunslingers.
Let us look at two recent examples – I asked my best buddy ChatGPT for non-political commentaries.
UK 2022
When Prime Minister Liz Truss announced large, unfunded tax cuts in September 2022, it triggered a sharp loss of confidence in the UK’s financial markets. Here’s a non-political explanation of what happened and how it was resolved, focusing purely on economic and financial mechanisms:
What Happened:
1. The Announcement:
In late September 2022, the UK government (under PM Liz Truss and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng) announced a “mini-budget” featuring around £45 billion in tax cuts — the largest since 1972 — without detailing how these would be funded.
2. Market Reaction: (more…)
NAPLES Q1 2025 MARKET REPORT
The median price of SFs and Villas sold in Q1 2025 reached record levels, while the median price of the Condos sold, while lower than in Q1 2024 was still higher than in the second half of 2024.Bear in mind that Q1 sales reflect contracts agreed in late 2024/early 2025, while market sentiment changed after that; it is likely that Q2 numbers will show a decrease.
PSF is another way of looking at the market. Q1 showed a nice cadence: $403 for SF, $351 for Villas and $307 for Condos. (more…)
BONITA SPRINGS Q1 2025 MARKET REPORT
For Bonita Springs overall, median prices were mixed in the 1st Quarter of 2025: SF higher than in Q1 2024, Villas and Condos lower. Sales continued to drop.
The median Price per Sq.Ft. was lower all round, while the pace of sales was back to pre-COVID days. (more…)
BAY FOREST 2024 MARKET REPORT and 5-YEAR REVIEW
Median Price and Sales
The median price of the properties sold in Bay Forest increased dramatically from $275,000 in 2020 to $475,000 in 2023, before retreating in 2024. Sales in 2024 recovered from the drop in 2022 and 2023.
Condos, which sell at lower prices than Villas, were a bigger share of the market in 2024 and had a larger effect on the overall median price. (more…)
IMPERIAL GOLF ESTATES 2024 MARKET REPORT and 5-YEAR REVIEW
Median Price and Sales
The median price of the Single Family homes sold in Imperial Golf Estates (Imperial) has more than doubled since 2020, while sales recovered in 2024 from the slowdown in 2022 and 2023.
The median price of the small number of Villas sold in Imperial has continued to increase year by year, while sales have been at a consistent level.
The median price of the Condos sold in Imperial in 2024 showed a small decline, but sales were just half the 2023 level.
While Inventory has increased sharply from the extremely low levels of 2022/23, it is at the low end of the pre-COVID levels at the beginning of the season.
Price per Sq Ft (PSF) and Speed of Sales (Days to Offer Accepted – DTO) (more…)
BONITA BAY MARKET 2024 MARKET REPORT and 5-YEAR REVIEW
Median Price and Sales
The median price of the Single Family homes sold in Bonita Bay more doubled from $1.1 million in 2020 to $2.5 million in 2022 and has been stable since.
Sales increased from 2019 to 2021, dropped back, and them increased in 2024.
The median price of the Villas sold in Bonita Bay has continued to increase year by year, and sales also increased last year,
The median price of the Condos sold in Bonita Bay has also continued to increase. On the surface, the median price jumped to $1.275 million in 2023, but the 41 sales at Omega boosted the median price. Without those sales, the 2023 median price would have been $820,000, meaning there was an underlying increase again in 2024. Excluding the Omega sales in 2023, the 2024 figure was steady.
While Inventory has doubled from the extremely low levels on 2022/23, it has returned to more normal levels at the beginning of the season.
Price per Sq Ft (PSF) and Speed of Sales (Days to Offer Accepted – DTO)
PSF is another way to look at prices.
The PSF has increased significantly in recent years, in line with median prices.
The pace of Sales quickened dramatically until 2022. 2024 presented mixed picture. (more…)
PELICAN BAY MARKET 2024 MARKET REPORT and 5-YEAR REVIEW
Median Price and Sales
The median price of the Single Family homes sold in Pelican Bay more doubled from $2.25 million in 2020 to $4.7 million in 2024.
Sales increased until 2021 and have since dropped back below pre-pandemic levels.
The median price of the Villas sold in Pelican Bay increased from $1.5 million in 2020 to $1.875 million in 2024, but declined from 2022/23 levels.
The number of sales increased in 2020/21, but has since dropped back to pre-pandemic numbers.
The median price of the Condos sold in Pelican Bay increased 45% from $750,000 in 2020 to $1.3 million in 2024, and was stable from 2022-24. Sales have also dropped sharply since 2021.
Price per Sq Ft (PSF) and Speed of Sales (Days to Offer Accepted – DTO)
PSF is another way to look at sales. (more…)
BONITA SPRINGS 2024 MARKET REPORT and 5-YEAR REVIEW
Median Price and Sales
The median price of the properties sold in Bonita Springs increased dramatically during the cheap money period after COVID. Single Family and Condo median prices increased almost 60% from 2020 to 2022, while Villa median prices increased by 90%.
Prices have been more stable in the last 2 years. There are always quarterly fluctuations in real estate sales and median prices. In Southwest Florida that can be exacerbated by the seasonal nature of the market. Many of the more expensive properties are bought by people wintering here and thus – except during the post COVID rush – median prices are often strongest during the winter months.
If prices fall during the second half of a year, it is hard to tell whether that decline reflects just the lower price of the properties that did sell, or a reduction in actual prices. What can be said in early 2025 is that attorneys report a pick-up in activity after the Election, which removed an uncertainty, and agents are reporting that Open Houses in early January have been very busy.
Overall sales – of all property types – surged until around Q3 2021, and then almost halved from 2021 to 2024, when they were at the lowest since 2009.
(more…)
NAPLES 2024 MARKET REPORT and 5-YEAR REVIEW
Median Price and Sales
The median price of the properties sold in Naples increased dramatically during the cheap money period after COVID. Single Family median prices increased almost 60% from 2020 to 2022; Villa and Condo median prices by two-thirds.
Prices have been more stable in the last 2 years. There are always quarterly fluctuations in real estate sales and median prices. In Naples that can be exacerbated by the seasonal nature of the market. Many of the more expensive properties are bought by people wintering in Naples and thus – except during the post COVID rush – median prices are often strongest during the winter months.
If prices fall during the second half of a year, it is hard to tell whether that decline reflects just the lower price of the properties that did sell, or a reduction in actual prices. What can be said in early 2025 is that attorneys report a pick-up in activity after the Election, which removed an uncertainty, and agents are reporting that Open Houses in early January have been very busy.
Overall sales – of all property types – surged until around Q3 2021, and then halved from 2021 to 2024, when they were at the lowest since 2010.
(more…)
