Market returning to normal – well, mostly
After the extremely strong market post COVID it is instructive to take a slightly longer-term look.
These 3 charts are very much big picture for the entire Naples region and include all types of property. They do show, however, that sales and new listings have reverted to the norm, while prices overall are some 65% higher. (more…)
Sales Resemble Pre-Pandemic — But Not Pricing & Inventory
The number of closed sales is starting to resemble pre-pandemic levels — but this is a very different market now because homes are listed at significantly higher prices and inventory levels remain much lower than before.
Click June Florida Housing Report to watch a short video from Brad O’Connor, Ph.D., the Chief Economist for Florida Realtors®
And read these recent articles: (more…)
Naples mid-year Market Report
The trends evident in 2021 – persistent demand meeting lower inventory leading to fewer sales at higher prices – continued into the early months of 2022, but there was a notable cooling of the market towards the end of the second quarter, as rising mortgage rates and fears of recession, along with a sharp drop in the stock market, contributed to a hesitation amongst buyers. As always, caution should be exercised when looking at small numbers of transactions.
And read these recent articles: (more…)
Moody’s: Housing Correction Coming – but No Crash
NEW YORK – Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi predicts that the latest Federal Reserve interest rate hike will cause a housing correction across the United States – but there won’t be a housing crash.
He suggests that the Southeast and Mountain West are the most overvalued housing markets, and the pendulum will swing back down. Cities and states due for a correction include Phoenix and Tucson in Arizona, the Carolinas, northeast Florida, and above all, Boise – “the most overvalued market in the country,” according to Moody’s analysis. (more…)
Millennials now make up 43% of Homebuyers
The share of millennial homebuyers increased significantly over the past year, according to the 2022 Home Buyer and Seller Generational Trends report from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).
The combined share of younger millennial (23 to 31 years old) and older millennial buyers (32 to 41 years old) rose to 43% in 2021, up from 37% the year prior. Almost two out of three younger millennials (65%) found the home they ultimately purchased on the internet, a number that gradually decreases with older generations. (more…)
Has Inflation Peaked?
After I published Have Mortgage Rates peaked? last week a reader asked me why I thought the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bill would not continue to increase, so that even if the spread over the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) narrowed, the FRM rate itself might still increase.
In Are we already in a Recession?, published on June 18, I wrote: “Just as the yield on 10T has more than doubled since pre-COVID while the Fed Funds rate is unchanged, so the Fed Funds rate can increase sharply – the Fed is forecasting it will reach 3.4% this year, also double its pre-COVID level – without necessarily impacting the yield on 10T. That will depend upon the economic outlook. Ironically, perhaps, the more determined the Fed is to drive down inflation – even at the cost of a recession and higher unemployment – the greater the chance that the yield on 10T – and by extension the FRM – will decline – at some point.”
In the last few days, as more economists talked about a recession after the Atlantic Fed updated its Q2 GDP estimate to minus 2.1% (it was 0% when I wrote on June 18), the yield on 10T has dropped sharply, falling to 2.9% from a peak of 3.5% in the middle of May: (more…)
How far Behind the Curve is the Federal Reserve?
In March 2020, as the impact of COVID-19 was being felt, the Federal Reserve cut the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points ( 0.5%) on March 3 and followed that with a 100 basis points (1%) cut on March 15th – a total of 1.5% in under two weeks. This emergency action was decisive and instrumental in preventing a financial disaster. But the economy quickly bounced back with a huge rebound in Q3 2020. The emergency was over.
The Fed, however, kept pumping huge amounts of cash into the economy. Eventually, the market decided that the Fed was behind the curve and market rates took off. Yet the Fed has been slow – make that very slow – to respond. This chart shows interest rates on January 31st 2020, the trading day before COVID-19 was declared to be a public health emergency in the US, and this Friday after the announcement that the Consumer Price Index rose 8.6% in May from a year earlier.
Does anything strike you about this chart? Such as the fact that all the market interest rates are up anywhere from 50% to 130% – and the Fed Funds rate is still way down from its pre-COVID level. (more…)
Florida Lawmakers Pass Insurance, Condo Reforms
Property insurance reform
Senate Bill 2D includes a variety of reform measures
Protecting Policyholders from Nonrenewal: Insurers may not refuse to write or renew policies on homes with roofs that are less than 15 years old solely because of the roof’s age.
Roof Solicitations: Requires roofing solicitations to contain consumer-awareness language that the homeowner is responsible for the deductible under the insurance policy, and it is insurance fraud for the contractor to reduce or waive the deductible or file a claim with false or misleading information.
Roof Deductible: Allows insurance companies to offer a policy at a reduced rate to consumers that includes a roof deductible of up to 2% of the insured value or 50% of the roof replacement cost. Roof deductibles will not apply when there is a total loss to the structure, a loss caused by a hurricane, a roof loss resulting from a fallen tree or other hazard, or a loss requiring a repair of less than 50% of the roof.
Assignment of Benefits (AOB) Reform: Eliminates attorney fee awards where policyholder benefits have been assigned to a 3rd party.
Improving Affordability for Policyholders: Authorizes $2 billion for a new Reinsurance to Assist Policyholders (RAP) program to help insurers obtain reimbursement for hurricane losses earlier than they normally would under the Florida CAT Fund. This reinsurance is provided by the state at no cost to the insurer. Insurers that participate in RAP must reduce policyholder premiums.
Home Hardening Grants: Appropriates $150 million to provide hurricane mitigation inspections and matching grants to help Floridians afford home hardening improvements to their homestead single-family residences with an insured value of $500,000 or less. The program provides $2 in grant funds for every $1 provided by the homeowner up to $10,000.
Condominium safety reform
Florida lawmakers also addressed condominium reform by passing Senate Bill 4D. This bill provides an overhaul of the high-rise inspection law, requires more frequent recertification of safety standards and mandates that condo boards build up reserves so they can make needed repairs. Changes in the bill include:
Creates a statewide “milestone inspection” requirement for condominiums and cooperative buildings that are three stories or higher 30 years after initial occupancy, and 25 years after initial occupancy for buildings located within three miles of the coast.
Requires inspections every 10 years after a building’s initial “phase 1” inspection.
Requires an additional, more intensive inspection, or a “phase 2” inspection, if a building’s initial inspection reveals substantial structural deterioration.
Beginning in 2024, condo associations are required to conduct a structural integrity reserve study at least every ten years and prevents needed reserves from being waived.
Click here for fuller details.
Comment
Difficulty in finding homeowners’ insurance – and large rate increases when a policy has been renewed – have plagued the Florida market. One of the biggest issues has been roofs which are 15 years or more old – that has been a cause for non-renewal for many, so this new legislation should make things easier.
I shall investigate what is covered by the Home Hardening Grants and report further.
Florida Housing Market in 5 pictures
Why are Mortgage rates so high?
Florida Regulator: Insurers Can Offer Roof Deductibles
Naples First Quarter Housing Market Summary
Expansion Plans for Fort Myers Airport
Bonita Springs First Quarter Market Summary
St James City First Quarter Market Summary
Fort Myers Beach First Quarter Market Summary
Naples Park First Quarter Market Summary
Estero First Quarter Market Summary
- Andrew Oliver, M.B.E., M.B.A.
Real Estate Advisor
Andrew.Oliver@Compass.com
www.TheFeinsGroup.com
www.OliverReportsFL.com
m: 617.834.8205
———-
800 Laurel Oak Drive, Suite 400, Naples, FL 34108
———-
Licensed in Massachusetts
www.OliverReportsMA.com
How to protect your house from title fraud
According to the FBI, property fraud is one of the fastest growing white-collar crimes in the United States. Criminals file fake deeds or other land records to appear as if they own property that is not actually theirs, and then they deceive people into giving them money to buy or rent those homes.
There are companies which offer to monitor your title and help you fight when somebody tries to claim your property, while some counties offer a risk alert notification service.
Collier County for example offers a free risk alert notification service to help property owners monitor their recorded property records for fraudulent activity.
Subscribers will be sent an email alert when a deed, lien, mortgage or other land record matching the subscriber’s criteria has been recorded into the Official Records of Collier County.
Although this service does not prevent the actual fraudulent activity from occurring, it provides the subscriber an opportunity to verify whether the activity was initiated by them or by a scammer committing fraud.
Click here to enroll in the Collier County program.
And here for the Lee County program.
If you own property in other Counties I suggest googling Property Fraud Alert and the name of the County.
Andrew Oliver, M.B.E., M.B.A.
Real Estate Advisor
Andrew.Oliver@Compass.com
www.TheFeinsGroup.com
www.OliverReportsFL.com
Compass
800 Laurel Oak Drive, Suite 400, Naples, FL 34108
m: 617.834.8205
Licensed in Massachusetts
www.OliverReportsMA.com
