The Federal Reserve and Mortgage Rates

As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) increased its Fed Funds Rate (FF) this week by 0.25% to 0.5%, the first increase since 2018.

What does this mean for mortgage rates and why are they rising? The FF rate affects the lending rate for credit cards, auto loans, adjustable rate mortgages, all of which are impacted by banks’ Prime Rate, which moves with the FF rate. Fixed Rate Mortgages – the typical 30-year mortgage – have a longer life and their benchmark is the closest Treasury security, which is the 10-year (10T).

Five charts explain the factors driving mortgage rates. In all cases the numbers are at the dates that the Fed has changed its FF since 2015: 9 increases followed by 5 decreases before this week’s rise. Because the purpose of this article is to show the link between FF, FRM and 10T the dates shown are only those on which the FF rate changed. Bear that in mind when looking at the charts below – they do not attempt to show all the price movements in between the dates shown. (more…)