Bay Forest, Imperial, PRICE REDUCTIONS and OPEN HOUSES
The Bay Forest Boardwalk is finished and just waiting on permits to open offically. Several properties have reduced prices this weekend so now is a GREAT time to buy!
SATURDAY OPEN HOUSES
THE ISLAND, IMPERIAL GOLF ESTATES
10 AM – 12 PM
1510 IMPERIAL GC BLVD, 133
2 Bed, 2 Bath
3rd (TOP) Fl, Garage
Dramatic Golf Course, Lake Views; 1538 Sq.Ft,
LARGE ROOMS, FEELS LIKE SINGLE FAMILY LAYOUT
$399,000 now $380,00
GO HERE for photos, video, floor plan, etc
BAY FOREST OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY 1-3 PM
LAKESIDE VILLA IN RARELY AVAILABLE LA JOLLA
15455 ROYAL FERN LN N, #37A
2 Bed+DEN, 2 Bath
GARAGE
$533,000 now $505,000
Go HERE for photos, video etc
SUNDAY OPEN HOUSES
BAY FOREST
OPEN HOUSE 12:30-2:30 PM
SANDY PINES
15450 CEDARWOOD LN #203
STUNNING LAKE VIEW
COMPLETELY UPDATED
2 bed 2 Bath; Garage
$525,000 now $499,000
Go HERE for photos and more
OPEN HOUSE 2-4 PM
15348 WIMBORNE LN
Rarely available Sea Pines I single-family home . FLEXIBLE floor plan allows for two or three bedrooms, plus a family room and office, DOUBLE GARAGE and 34ft LANAI
$640,000 now $600,000
Go (a href=”https://tour.realtoursswfl.com/sites/15348-wimborne-ln-naples-fl-34110-13212150/branded”<HERE for photos and more
OPEN HOUSE SUNDAY 2:45-4:45 PM
BERMUDA BAY 1
15435 CEDARWOOD LN, 5-304
2 Bed+DEN, 2 Bath
3rd (TOP) Fl, Impeccable
NEW A/C, NEW Ductwork
Updated KITCHEN/Baths
Garage, $460,000
Go HEREfor photos, videos and more
Andrew.Oliver@Compass.com
How’s the market in February 2025?
This table shows median prices for all types of property sold in Naples month by month since 2020. There are a couple of outliers, but in general median prices have been in the $600-650,000 range. January 2025 was a little higher at $675,000.
This table shows Active Listings divided by Sales in the last 12 months. The Months of Inventory number means how long it would take to sell the current inventory based upon the rate of sales in the previous year.Generally ,in real estate, 6 months of supply is regarded as a market in equilibrium between buyers and sellers: a higher number favours buyers, a lower number sellers.
Southwest Florida is, of course, a seasonal market. The following chart shows that sales – which typically occur 6-8 weeks after a contract is signed – are at their highest in March-May, and lowest in October – January. Which makes sense. Inventory is highest in the early months, drops in the summer, and then picks up as we get towards the next season.
Comment
Anecdotal stories are intriguing, but often very selective. I try to present the actual numbers as a basis for making informed decisions by both sellers and buyers.
Andrew.Oliver@Compass.com
Bay Forest Open House TODAY 1-3 PM
This stunning 2nd-floor condo with cathedral ceilings offers a blend of luxury, modern updates, and tranquility, and comes fully furnished.Go HERE for more photos, video, and more.
Come to today’s Open Houses 1-3 PM or call Andrew Oliver:617.834.8205 for a private showing
As you step inside, you’ll be captivated by the breathtaking view through the lanai overlooking the lake, elegant wood laminate flooring and soaring ceilings.
The updated kitchen boasts quartz countertops and stainless steel appliances, seamlessly blending style and functionality.
Property Features: 2 split bedrooms and 2 bathrooms; garage; Updated kitchen with quartz counters and stainless steel appliances;Stylish wood laminate flooring throughout; roof less than 3 years old.
Located in Sandy Pines, this home is ideally positioned near the community pool and a short walk to the clubhouse, where you can enjoy Bay Forest’s renowned amenities.
Bay Forest spans 150 acres of natural beauty, bordering the Gulf backwaters. A new $4.5 million boardwalk, which is completed and awaiting final permits, will be the highlight of Bay Forest’s over two miles of walking paths and meander through mangroves to Gulf estuaries.
Resurfaced tennis and pickleball courts (three of each), bocce, and shuffleboard.
Clubhouse Amenities: Social events, fitness center, library, kitchen, bar, and more.
Delnor Wiggins and Barefoot Beaches are just minutes away and it is 30 minutes to Southwest Florida International Airport.
Andrew.Oliver@Compass.com
Naples and Bonita Springs 2024 Market Stats
Here are the 2024 Market Stats and 2021-24 comparsions for Naples, Bonita Springs, and selected communities.
Click on the chart to see it in full size.
Andrew.Oliver@Compass.com
Why do people buy New Homes?
Many buyers today flock to newly built homes for several reasons:
1. They simply want NEW. New everything. This can include homes designed for today’s needs and demands, often with finishes, mechanicals, amenities, etc that don’t exist in most existing homes.
2. They don’t wish to undergo a renovation either due to lack of will, or know-how. Most know a renovation is rarely quick, cheap or easy. While an unrenovated home may be far ‘cheaper’, often after a renovation (including the cost of living somewhere while the renovation occurs) the final cost ends up being similar.
3. When you buy brand new, you can finance the entire purchase: property AND renovation (as no renovation is needed). This means you need less cash after closing and may allow you to put down more cash when buying, thereby bringing down monthly expenses/mortgage cost.
4. Every home needs repairs and maintenance over time. Brand new homes too, but often their systems being brand new mean fewer big-ticket repairs/maintenance costs.
5. New homes are built according to new building CODES…. often they are more energy efficient AND resilient. New codes often address the weaknesses of past building codes.
6. Many buyers have shifted their preference to a more modern aesthetic. No, most new buildings are not minimalist, but buyers today often like taller ceilings, bigger windows, open kitchens, bigger bathrooms, etc, the kind of things developers are installing into new homes. This can exist in a sleek all glass box, or a more traditional, even historic-appearing facade.
7. In a FOMO world, brand new can deliver instant gratification. And use. Time Is The Last Luxury.
8. Often hiring a big-name designer of an ultra-luxe building to do one home would be prohibitively expensive: this economy of scale can have real value to those seeking ultra-luxe design.
At COMPASS we have everything from single family starter homes to mansions, condos in 3-unit buildings and townhouses to massive, fully amenitized buildings with hotel services. At all price points, not just those ultra-luxe multi-million-dollar-productions.
Andrew.Oliver@Compass.com
What drives Mortgage Rates – and no it’s not the Federal Reserve
I am always astonished by the number of reports I read, before and after the Federal Reserve (Fed) makes a change in its interest rate, about the effect such a change will have on mortgage rates.
No doubt it came as a surprise to those writers when there was virtually no change in the Freddie Mac weekly survey of mortgage rates this week.
Myth
“Mortgage rates react to the Fed.”
Look at this chart for the last year:
The FFR rate was unchanged at 5.5% for over a year until last week, but during that time frame the FRM varied between a high of almost 7.8% last October and a low of just over 6% last week before the Fed cut its inetrest rate by 0.5%.(The Freddie Mac survey takes place from Monday-Wednesday each week, so the 6.09% reported on September 19 reflected rates before the Fed cut its interest rate).
What happened after the Fed cut rates?
Precious little. The rate before the Fed cut rates was 6.09% and afterwards…. 6.08%.
In simple terms, there is no correlation or link between the Fed’s interest rates and the rate on 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgages.
What does determine Mortgage Rates?
Take a look at this chart which compares the FRM with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note (10T).
Note that the two charts follow each other closely.
Why do Mortgage Rates track the yield on the 10-year Treasury?
Most conventional mortgages (i.e.those meeting the terms set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) are sold by the originator to Fannie and Freddie, thereby freeing up the lenders’ capital to make more loans. Exactly why Fannie and Freddie were founded.
And what do Fannie and Freddie do with these loans? They package them into large pools and sell them to investors in the public market as Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). Because investors demand a higher yield to buy MBS than they would to buy a Treasury Note – because the risk is higher – they demand a premium – or spread – above the yield they would receive from the Treasury Note with a similar maturity to the expected life of the mortgages – and that is the 10T.
Is the spread consistent?
Good question. The answer is no.
For most of this century the spread was in the 1.6 – 1.8% range and averaged around 1.75%. The exceptions were:
2008 – the Great Recession and the height of the foreclosure crisis making mortgages unattractive to investors, who demanded higher yields
2020 – at the outset of the pandemic, amidst widespread uncertainty, spreads widened before the Fed started its huge program of pouring money into the economy, buying both Treasuries and MBS and igniting an asset boom
2022-23 – when the Fed finally, belatedly, stopped injecting liquidity into the system, the market reacted to two main factors: the Treasury would need to sell a lot more Securities to fund the spending, and the growing Budget deficit; and the biggest buyer of Treasuries – the Fed itself – was switching from being a buyer to a seller.The Fed also continues to hold a huge amount of MBS, which it is slowly reducing by not reinvesting.
Fannie and Freddie have increased fees to lenders
In addition to the fact that the Budget deficit continues to increase, while the Fed has been a seller of Treasuries, Fannie and Freddie have increased the fees they charge to lenders. These two factors have combined to increase the spread to more than the historic 1.6-1.8% , as shown in this chart, again for the last year:
Where are Mortgage Rates headed?
Thw two biggest questions facing the Treasury market are: will Congress take steps to rein in the soaring Budget deficit, and will foreign investors retain their appetite for US securities?
I don’t know, but to know where mortgage rates are headed,the most important number to watch is the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note.
Cheaper Mortgages are available
The Freddie Mac weekly survey is a national report. I work with lenders in both Florida and Massachusetts who are offering 30-year FRM for 5.5%. And other options are as low as 5%. Call me for details.
Recent Market Reports
Naples Mid-Year 2024 Market Report
Bonita Springs Mid-Year 2024 Market Report
Fort Myers Beach Mid-Year 2024 Market Report
Please contact me for a market report that includes properties in your area which were recently listed or sold.
Economic and mortgage commentary
The Federal Reserve’s new buzzword: Recalibrate
Federal Reserve Chair Powell:The Time has Come
Earth to Federal Reserve: What are you waiting for?”
The Federal Reserve’s Analysis Paralysis
Andrew.Oliver@Compass.com
The Federal Reserve’s new buzzword: Recalibrate
At Wednesday’s press conference after the Fed – finally – cut rates by 50 basis points (bp)(0.5%) – Fed Chair Powell introduced a new phrase to explain their action: “recalibrate.”
We have been through “transient inflation”; “data dependent”; “higher for longer”; and “data-dependent, not data point dependent” and have reached “recalibrate”.
Chair Powell denied that they were playing catch up because they waited too long to start cutting rates (they are, and they did).
Frankly, after their slow and deliberate approach this year, I expected only 25 bp. BUT…the next meeting is not until November 6, the day after the Election. And who knows what the environment will be on that date? It is certainly not out of the question that there will be a lack of clarity about the outcome. And while the Fed states that it not influenced by political considerations, they will naturally be aware of an environment which may well make it difficult for them to make an accurate forecast of the future.
So 50 bp now is “not a catch up” – but it would have been more consistent – and raised fewer questions – if they had cut 25 bp in July and a further 25 bp now.
Mortgage rates
I will update my 2023 article Why Mortgage Rates will fall in 2024 in the next few days. In that article I predicted that the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) would drop below 6% by the end of 2024. I also explained why mortgage rates do not follow the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, but are market driven based on the yield of the 10-year Treasury.
And to make to make that point more clearly: in both Massachusetts and Florida it is already possible to get FRMs for 5.5%, a sharp drop from from earlier in the year.
Recent Market Reports
Naples Mid-Year 2024 Market Report
Bonita Springs Mid-Year 2024 Market Report
Fort Myers Beach Mid-Year 2024 Market Report (more…)
Bay Forest Open Houses Sunday September 15
15455 ROYAL FERN LN N, #37A
LAKESIDE VILLA IN RARELY AVAILABLE LA JOLLA
2 Bed+DEN, 2 Bath
1582 SF, GARAGE
$579,000
Go HERE for photos and video
OPEN HOUSE SUNDAY: 12:00 – 1:30
15535 CEDARWOOD LN, 5-304 (BERMUDA BAY 1)
2 Bed+DEN, 2 Bath
3rd (TOP) Fl, Impeccable
Updated KITCHEN/Baths
1538 SF, Garage
$460,000
Go HERE for photos and video
OPEN HOUSE SUNDAY 1:3O-3:00
15435 ROYAL FERN LN N #22B
3 bed +Den; 3 bath; 2127 SQ FT; $775,001.
Currently off market can be shown by appointment.
Go HERE for photos and video
Recent Market Reports
Naples Mid-Year 2024 Market Report
Bonita Springs Mid-Year 2024 Market Report
Fort Myers Beach Mid-Year 2024 Market Report
Please contact me for a market report that includes properties in your area which were recently listed or sold.
Economic and mortgage commentary
Federal Reserve Chair Powell:The Time has Come
Earth to Federal Reserve: What are you waiting for?”
The Federal Reserve’s Analysis Paralysis
Andrew.Oliver@Compass.com
Earth to Federal Reserve: What are you waiting for?
This is the same headline I used in February 2022 in this article
Earth to Federal Reserve: What are you waiting for?,
when the Federal Reserve (Fed) was dithering about raising rates. It is just as applicable today as they dither about cutting rates.
Indeed, sometimes I wonder if the Fed is more concerned about coming up with catchy phrases: “transient inflation; “data dependent”; “higher for longer”; and now “data-dependent, not data point dependent” – than actually taking decisions.
“Date-dependent mean the Fed doesn’t have a clue”
This was a heading in an earlier Bloomberg article, which continued: But perhaps the bigger takeaway is that Chair Jerome Powell and his fellow policymakers really don’t have a clue what’s going to happen in the economy. They’re shooting in the dark. “They’re making it up as they go along.”
These comments may seem harsh but it expresses the frustration many feel about what I described in this recent article: The Federal Reserve’s Analysis Paralysis
The data is unreliable and subject to change
Mohamed El-Erian, whom I often quote, captured the current state of affairs when he observed: “I think the major issue is that the market has become overly data-dependent, just like our central banks have become overly data-dependent. So, we’re not looking beyond the next data release because we’re worried about what will the Fed do in September, what will the ECB (European) Central) Bank) do in September.”
Central bankers and markets should be aware of the risks associated with an overly data-dependent approach to monetary policymaking. In 2019, Powell himself highlighted the basic challenge: “We must sort out in real time, as best we can, what the profound changes underway in the economy mean for issues such as the functioning of labor markets, the pace of productivity growth, and the forces driving inflation.”
Yet economic data are often unreliable. Official statistics undergo multiple and often substantial revisions. For instance, the payroll numbers undergo subsequent revisions —sometimes large ones that give the lie to the initial perceptions.
Richard Fisher, a former Dallas Fed president, once offered an example of the dangers involved. Data pointing to excessively low levels of inflation had prompted the Fed to keep rates low in 2002 and 2003. Subsequent revisions, he acknowledged, showed that “inflation had actually been a half point higher than first thought. In retrospect, the real fed funds rate turned out to be lower than what was deemed appropriate at the time and was held lower longer that it should have been.”
In a recent Financial Times article, Mohammed-El Erian asked a number of questions, amongst them:
Why did Fed forecasts get it so wrong, be it on inflation or unemployment — the so-called dual mandate — in recent years? And to what extent has this resulted in a longer-term shift to excessive data dependency in the formulation of the central bank’s policy?
Ongoing structural and secular changes in how the US and global economies function are more consequential for policy design than “noisy” short-term data. So, is it not now time to combine data dependency with a much greater injection of forward-looking strategic thinking? (more…)
Fort Myers Beach Mid-Year 2024 Market Report
Fort Myers Beach has been in recovery and rebuilding mode since Hurricane Ian hit with devastating effect in September 2022, as is still evident when driving through FMB.
“Every street on the island has a house that’s either been erected or is being erected, with many more permits in place to go to build,” said Mayor Allers.
This amount of growth reflects itself in (assessed) property values. They’ve increased nearly 50%, which is much higher than the county average of a 5.86% increase.
“We were obviously excited to see that number, it gets us closer back to where we were before the storm,” said Allers. “We’re still not all the way there yet, but it’s a testament to our aggressive (attitude) in getting people in their houses with their permits and getting businesses back open.”
The chart below shows the median price of the properties that have sold, bearing in mind that these range from fully renovated properties to those being sold “as is.”
The median Price per Sq.Ft.(PSF) has decreased since Ian, reflecting the mix of renovated and as is sales. (more…)
Fort Myers Beach, Lee County will keep FEMA flood insurance discount
Fort Myers Beach Lee County property owners who have flood insurance policies through the National Flood Insurance Program will be able to maintain their 25% discount, FEMA notified the town and county Friday. The City of Cape Coral also received a similar letter.
The news followed an appeal by the county, Fort Myers Beach, Cape Coral, Estero and Bonita Springs of a FEMA ruling earlier this year which would have taken away the discount over concerns FEMA had over permitless repair work done throughout the county after Hurricane Ian.
According to spokespersons for the town and county, FEMA restored the county’s rating while the town and county continue to work on a plan to address some continuing issues. That plan will be due Nov. 18.
“We feel as though we responded to FEMA’s request for information and felt that the information was accurate while meeting the requirements that were established prior to Hurricane Ian; however, we do look forward to working with FEMA to address any outstanding issues as they continue to explore the future of the Community Rating System and focus on ways that they can improve,” Town of Fort Myers Beach Manager Andy Hyatt said.
“We believe this is a positive step toward keeping the CRS rating for our unincorporated Lee County residents while we continue to remediate outstanding issues with FEMA,” Lee County Manager Dave Harner said. “Essentially the notification today provides the county an extension to further clarify our processes and preserve the CRS rating in the future.” (more…)
Bonita Springs Mid-Year 2024 Market Report
For Bonita Springs overall, median prices continued to increase in the first half of 2024, while sales dropped back to pre-COVID levels.
The median Price per Sq.Ft. also showed increases in 2024, while the DTO – Days To Offer – the number of days a property is listed before an accepted offer is received – increased in 2024, but remained below 2020 levels. (more…)
Naples Mid-Year 2024 Market Review
Despite some media reports suggesting a decline in Naples’ property prices, the data on completed sales supports my view that the market remains stable in overall terms as far as prices, while sales have returned to pre-COVID levels. This table shows Median Prices and Sales for Single Family, Villa and Condos
The median Price per Sq.Ft. increased for SFs in line with median prices, and was stable for Villa and Condos.
DTO – Days To Offer – the number of days a property is listed before an accepted offer is received – increased, but was still below 2020 speeds. (more…)