INFLATION and RECESSION UPDATE

This time last year, stocks were still in the gutter, inflation was in the stratosphere and Fed interest rates were going up, up, up. Today the S&P 500 has risen 17% since Jan. 1, the much-anticipated recession has yet to arrive, unemployment remains below 4% and consumers are still spending–Walmart, Target, and Gap all beat expectations this week.
Inflation has dropped to around 3%, not too far off the Fed’s 2% target. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon was talking about deflation in the coming months. Oil prices are below $75 a barrel, Airfares are significantly cheaper this year than they were for the holidays last year. Bond yields are dropping, too, as traders start to price in Fed rate cuts next year. The 10-year yield has dropped back to around 4.4% from as high as 5% in October. (Barrons)

On Thursday, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said deflation could be coming as general merchandise and key grocery items, such as eggs, chicken and seafood get cheaper.
He said the retailer expects some of the stickier higher prices, such as the ones for pantry staples, to “start to deflate in the coming weeks and months,” too.
“In the U.S., we may be managing through a period of deflation in the months to come,” he said on the company’s Thursday earnings call. “And while that would put more unit pressure on us, we welcome it, because it’s better for our customers.”

“I think the most important observation we’ve made is that the worst of the inflationary environment is behind us,” Hone Depot, Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail

The question now is whether the Federal Reserve, having been extremely slow to start raising rates and reversing Quantative Easing, will be similarly late in easing. The Fed claims to be data dependent, but data tells us what happened in the past – and the Fed’s actions impact the future.

“The Fed must lower rates to cause money suply to grow by 5% per year, consistent with the 2% inflation target.If the Fed waits until core inflation is 2% we could have a recession.”(Jeremy Siegel, Wharton)

And read these articles:
Why Mortgage Rates will fall in 2024
Transitory inflation? Recession? What else will forecasters get wrong?
More insurers coming to Florida
Core Inflation Prices Barely Budged in August
August Housing Market: Median Prices Rise Year on Year

Market Reports
BAY FOREST Q3 MARKET REPORT 2019-2023
BONITA BAY Q3 MARKET REPORT 2019-2023
IMPERIAL GOLF ESTATES Q3 MARKET REPORT 2019-2023 (more…)

IMPERIAL GOLF ESTATES Q3 MARKET REPORT 2019-2023

The median price of the Single Family homes sold in Imperial Golf Estates (“Imperial”) doubled from $515,000 in 2019 to over $1 million in 2022. YTD Q3 2023 the median price increased further to $1.2 million.
Sales increased until Q2 2021, thereafter dropping below pre-pandemic levels.

The median price of the Villas increased nearly 50% from $315,000 in 2019 to $465,000 in 2022. The YTD Q3 2023 median price was $539,500, in line with Q4 2022. The number of sales was low, but fairly steady over the years.

The median price of the Condos sold increased by over 70% from $222,000 in 2019 to $386,000 in 2022, before slipping slightly in 2023. Sales increased in 2020/21 before returning to 2019 levels.

This report analyses the Median Price and Sales per quarter since 2019, along with the Sales by Price point, Price per Sq.Ft., and the Days properties were on the market before receiving an offer (DTO).
Median numbers are used in all calculations.

Click on IMPERIAL GOLF ESTATES MARKET REPORT 2019_2023 to read the full report.

And read these articles:
More insurers coming to Florida
Core Inflation Prices Barely Budged in August
August Housing Market: Median Prices Rise Year on Year (more…)

Two More Ways the Mortgage Market differs from 2007/2008

The chart below shows how loans with a credit score under 660 – the bottom colours of yellow and dark blue – which were about 20% of the total in the 2004-2007 period, have virtually ceased, with loans over 720 now making up the vast majority of new mortgages.

Two other changes:
Adjustable-rate mortgages can lead to higher default rates when interest rates rise, but they now represent less than 5% of total purchase and refinance loans, compared with over 35% at the peak of the pre-GFC (Global Financial Crisis) housing cycle. (FORTUNE)

The ratio of Americans’ mortgage debt to their real estate assets—also called loan-to-value—was just 27% in the second quarter, compared to over 40% in 2008 and roughly 50% in 2010. (Bank of America)

And read these articles:
More insurers coming to Florida
Core Inflation Prices Barely Budged in August
August Housing Market: Median Prices Rise Year on Year (more…)

More insurers coming to Florida

More insurance companies have come to do business in Florida, according to State Representative Bob Rommel.

Rommel said that the four carriers coming will not officially sell you a policy until hurricane season is over. There are three more insurers that are in the process of coming into the state as well.

“Before we got the bill, there was a fear that there will be little or no reinsurance money available for insurance carriers, which they need. Since we passed the bill, everybody has been able to get reinsurance, so I think that there is a light at the end of the tunnel,” said Rommel.

According to Rommel, he’ll continue addressing the state’s insurance crisis when legislators meet again in 2024 (WINKNews) (more…)

Core Inflation Prices Barely Budged in August

While inflation rose 3.5% year-to-year in Aug. – still above the Fed’s 2% goal – it was only up 0.1% month-to-month after backing out higher gas prices.

Core inflation slows
But excluding the volatile food and gas categories, “core” inflation rose by the smallest amount in almost two years in August, evidence that it’s continuing to cool. Fed officials pay particular attention to core prices, which are considered a better gauge of where inflation might be headed.

Core prices rose just 0.1% from July to August, down from July’s 0.2%. It was the smallest monthly increase since November 2021.

Compared with a year ago, (more…)

August Housing Market: Median Prices Rise Year on Year

Florida’s statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes in August was $415,000, up 2% from the same month a year ago, while the statewide median price for condo-townhouse units was $324,000, up 6.2% over the August 2022 figure. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

“Prospective buyers continue to be drawn to Florida’s lifestyle, climate and job opportunities. Persistently higher mortgage rates and a restricted for-sale inventory are hampering sales activity. However, as our housing prices continue to stabilize and interest rates hopefully moderate, we expect conditions to return to a more balanced market with more options for buyers and sellers.”

On the supply side of the market, single-family existing homes ticked up slightly to reach a 3-months’ supply in August while condo-townhouse properties rose to a 3.8-months’ supply. (more…)

Insurance Issues Could Pose Long-Term Problems

As Florida recovers from Hurricane Idalia, Fitch Ratings this week warned about long-term effects of property-insurance problems in Florida and California.

“Rising premiums and reduced availability of homeowners’ property insurance could drag on housing markets, development activity, overall economic growth and ultimately tax bases for certain California and Florida local governments over time,” the ratings agency said in a post Tuesday on its website.

“Insurers are re-evaluating their exposures to geographic areas with elevated catastrophe risk as they face greater losses and higher building and reinsurance costs. Insurance plays a key role in securing mortgages and enabling rebuilding following natural disasters.” Fitch said.

Florida has the highest homeowners’ insurance premiums in the country and Fitch pointed to pullbacks of firms such as Farmers Insurance in Florida and California.

It also cited massive growth at Florida’s Citizens Property Insurance Corp. which was created as an insurer of last resort but now has nearly 1.4 million policies.

“Recovery following natural disasters may be delayed or incomplete if there are greater numbers of those who are under-insured or uninsured due to affordability or non-renewal issues,” Fitch said. “High-risk areas could be left with a smaller tax base if hurricane or wildfire damage leads to permanent relocations, or if these areas find it difficult to attract new residents.

“Fitch has not observed these effects playing out to date, as insurance is one of many factors in home purchase decisions. However, pressures on housing demand could be amplified with increasing natural disasters and insurance markets in which the insurers of last resort are costly or impose higher assessments to cover increased claims.”

Florida lawmakers in December passed a series of changes to try to shore up the insurance market, including taking steps to limit lawsuits against property insurers.

© 2023 The News Service of Florida. All rights reserved.

And read these articles:
Home Prices Are Rebounding
Insurance Reform : Premiums still rising sharply
Naples Mid-year 2023 Market Stats
(more…)