Transitory inflation? Recession? What else will forecasters get wrong?

October 29, 2023 · by Andrew Oliver · in Mortgage and Finance News

Economists spent 2021 expecting inflation to prove “transitory.” They spent much of 2022 underestimating its staying power. And they spent early 2023 predicting that the Fed’s rate increases, meant to cure the inflation, would plunge the economy into a recession. (NY TIMES)

“US Economy Grew at a 4.9% Pace Last Quarter, Fastest Since 2021” (Bloomberg)

“The forecasts have been embarrassingly wrong, in the entire forecasting community. We are still trying to figure
out how this new economy works.” (Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management)

“The economy is slowing faster than recent data suggests.” (Bill Ackman, Pershing Capital)

“I want to point out the central banks 18 months ago were 100% dead wrong. I would be quite cautious about what might happen next year.” (JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon)

And read these articles:
More insurers coming to Florida
Core Inflation Prices Barely Budged in August
August Housing Market: Median Prices Rise Year on Year

Market Reports
BAY FOREST Q3 MARKET REPORT 2019-2023
BONITA BAY Q3 MARKET REPORT 2019-2023
IMPERIAL GOLF ESTATES Q3 MARKET REPORT 2019-2023
Home Prices Are Rebounding
Insurance Reform : Premiums still rising sharply
Naples Mid-year 2023 Market Stats

5 things people don’t know about Naples5
How to protect your house from title fraud
News from District 2

Naples a top city for corporate headquarters post-pandemic
Naples grabs No. 1 spot on this ‘Best Places to Live’ list

Florida lawmakers eye property insurance reforms

Expansion Plans for Fort Myers Airport
Guide to Buying and Selling in Southwest Florida

Mortgage and Economic commentary
Why Mortgage rates Will Fall
What drives Mortgage Rates in one chart
Lies, Damned Lies and Inflation “Statistics”*

Buyers Undeterred in Ian’s Hardest-Hit Areas
Home Prices After Ian? Probably Going Up
How have home prices behaved after previous major Hurricanes?