NAPLES 2024 MARKET REPORT and 5-YEAR REVIEW

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Median Price and Sales
The median price of the properties sold in Naples increased dramatically during the cheap money period after COVID. Single Family median prices increased almost 60% from 2020 to 2022; Villa and Condo median prices by two-thirds.

Prices have been more stable in the last 2 years. There are always quarterly fluctuations in real estate sales and median prices. In Naples that can be exacerbated by the seasonal nature of the market. Many of the more expensive properties are bought by people wintering in Naples and thus – except during the post COVID rush – median prices are often strongest during the winter months.

If prices fall during the second half of a year, it is hard to tell whether that decline reflects just the lower price of the properties that did sell, or a reduction in actual prices. What can be said in early 2025 is that attorneys report a pick-up in activity after the Election, which removed an uncertainty, and agents are reporting that Open Houses in early January have been very busy.

Overall sales – of all property types – surged until around Q3 2021, and then halved from 2021 to 2024, when they were at the lowest since 2010.

Single Family Sales by Price
Another way to look at sales is the distribution by price

While naturally the share of sales under $500,000 has dropped sharply since 2020, what is interesting is the similarity of market share by price in 2023 and 2024, another indication of a stable market.

Villa Sales by Price
There has been an even more pronounced change in the sales distribution of Villas, but here again the numbers for 2023 and 2024 are nearly identical.

Condo Sales by Price
And we see the same pattern in Condo sales.

Price per Sq Ft (PSF) and Speed of Sales (Days to Offer Accepted – DTO)
SF is another way to look at sales. This table shows again that the PSF increased dramatically from 2020 to 2022, and has been fairly stable since then.

There was also a dramatic increase in the speed of sales, with the median DTO plummeting from 2020 to 2022.
Sales have been taking longer since Q3 2022, and in 2024 approached the 2020 pace.

INVENTORY
While inventory has recovered from the extremely low levels of late 2021, it is at the low end of the range pre-the recent boom.

Another way to look at inventory is how long it would take to sell today’s inventory at the rate of recent sales. Note that the peak tends to come in January each year: new listings hit the market in anticipation of sales to winter visitors, boosting the supply.

SALES TO LIST PRICE AND SALES TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE
Most statistics taken from MLS report the Sale Price as a percentage of the List Price – but MLS uses the latest list price (at the time of sale), not the original list price, before any reductions have taken place.
This chart plots both the SP/LP (green line) and SP/OLP (blue line).

COMMENT
When the market is strong, price reductions are few – and generally represent properties mis-priced initially.
But as the market softens – which may mean prices are dropping, or may just mean that buyers are taking their time – price reductions are more common.
In a strong market buyers suffer from FOMO – Fear of Missing Out.
In a soft market sellers suffer from FOSTO – Fear of Selling Too Low, while buyers suffer from FOPTM – Fear of Paying Too Much.

If the initial List Price is set realistically, rather than optimistically, and no price reduction is necessary, then the two lines on the chart should be the same – because the List Price and Original List Price are the same. Since mid-2022 the SP/LP has declined, bringing it in line with its longer-term average around 96%. The narrowing of the differential between SP/LP and SP/OLP in recent months may suggest more realistic pricing is taking place.

As this analysis shows, properties are still selling. They will sell more quickly if they are priced realistically. Please contact me for a detailed market report including properties in your area which were recently listed or sold.