BAY FOREST 2023 MARKET REPORT and 5-YEAR REVIEW

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Median Price and Sales
The median price of the properties sold in Bay Forest increased 77% from $268,000 in 2019 to $475,000 in 2023. Sales doubled between 2019 and 2021, and dropped back again in 2022 and 2023.

Sales by Price
Another way to look at sales is the distribution by price. In 2019, 74% of sales were under $300,000 and there were none under $300,000 in 2022 and 2023. Conversely, the share of sales over $500,000 went from zero to 44%
Bay Forest sees a small number of sales each year at quite a wide range of price: in 2023, from $320,000 to $790,000.
The combination of small number of sales and wide range of prices can make median prices less reliable as a guide to the overall market in Bay Forest.

Price per Sq Ft (PSF) and Speed of Sales (Days to Offer Accepted – DTO)
PSF is another way to look at sales. The increase was 83% from $178 in 2019 to $325 in 2023, close to the 77% increase in the median price.
There was also a dramatic increase in the speed of sales, with the median DTO plummeting from 58 days in 2019 down to just 8 in 2022. The pace of sales slowed significantly in 2023.

Inventory
While Inventory throughout Naples, despite the increase over the last year or so, is still well below pre-pandemic levels, that is not the case at Bay Forest. The following chart shows that inventory (green line) is now where it was pre-pandemic, having recovered from the extremely low levels of late 2021. The number of months of inventory (how many months it would take to sell the current inventory – blue line) is more volatile because of the small number of sales. The current inventory of 23 properties would take about a year to sell at the pace of the second half of 2023.

LONGER TERM VIEW
John Donne wrote:
“No man is an island,
Entire of itself,
Every man is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.”
In like vein, communities like Bay Forest are part of the “main” – Naples. The chart and table below are, therefore, for Naples and show median prices since 2000.The median price did not exceed the 2005/06 peaks until 2020 for SFs and until 2022 for Villas and Condos. While the market conditions are vastly different from the earlier period, the slope of the increases from 2001-2005 and 2019-2022 is eerily similar. Over the whole of this century, the compound growth rate has been 6.5% for SFs, 5.1% for Villas and 5.6% for Condos. Unfortunately, the price appreciation has come in violent bursts rather than steady annual increases.

COMMENT
The numbers have been dramatic over the last few years, for all the well-known reasons. With the market returning to more normal conditions, pricing and condition are again important.
Bay Forest is facing additional challenges as its owners are dealing with significant increases in Condo fees and assessments for replacing elevators and the boardwalk.
If you are thinking of selling, please contact me for a current market analysis for your property.